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Estimating Risk

There are many techniques for estimating or modelling risk with the simplest based on the statistics of past events and their impacts. For example, risk from flooding usually is determined by an assumption that future floods will follow a pattern similar to events experienced in the past and that given enough data from past events, the risk can be determined. However, many natural hazards have little or no historical precedents upon which to properly assess the risk, particularly for rare or extreme events which may have a large impact on society.

To estimate the probability and impact of future events it is necessary to integrate information about past events with social models of communities, economic models and the physics of earth processes. In circumstances in which events are infrequent, thousands of scenarios are developed through simulations to model the probability of an event. Sophisticated computing techniques also are used to capture the interaction of hazard phenomena with the elements at risk and the associated vulnerabilities of the relative elements.

Natural hazard risk models provide the essential building blocks, or tools for coordinating risk assessments as part on an overall risk management framework. At the foundation of this framework is the Australia New Zealand Risk Management Standard (AS/NZ 4360).